Looking through the Hall of Fame ballots that have been released so far gives a gauge of how the four former Phillies on the ballot are faring. Roy Halladay looks to be a shoe-in for election in his first year of eligibility, while Curt Schilling is still a too close to call. As for Scott Rolen and Billy Wagner, maybe next year.
Ryan Thibodaux, who compiles publicly released Hall of Fame ballots and keeps a rather detailed compilation of the votes. His latest listing has 185 of an estimated 412 ballots that are to be cast, which means that only about 45% of the ballots have been released. With the announcements coming on Tuesday, you can figure a lot of voters will make their votes public between now and then, as most voters do release their ballots.
Thibodaux’s latest numbers have Roy Halladay receiving votes on 94.1% of the ballots that have been made public. If you do the math – which Thibodaux presents very clearly and precisely – Halladay would need to receive votes on just 59.5% of the remaining ballots, giving him the second best shot at induction. Not unexpectedly, Mariano Rivera has the best shot, needing just 54.6% of the remaining votes. It’s worth noting that so far, Rivera has collected votes on 100% of the ballots.
RELATED: Examine Thibodaux’s complete Hall of Fame Tracker.
Curt Schilling, who has fallen shy of the 75% vote total needed in the past, is currently running at 74.1% on the ballots released. He would need to get votes on 75.8% of the remaining ballots to gain induction into the Hall of Fame. Last year, Schilling received 51.2% of the vote, putting him well ahead of where his 2018 percentage.
Scott Rolen and Billy Wagner won’t be heading to Cooperstown this year. While some make a sabremetric case for Rolen’s induction, he has received votes on just 20.5% of the ballots and won’t be able to get to the 75% needed this year. The same is true for Wagner who has received 15.7% of votes. Last year, Rolen received votes on 10.2% of the ballots and Wagner was selected by 11.1% of the voters.